Norway’s proved crude oil reserves have decreased 3.5%
to 6. 37 billion bbl, according to the Norwegian Petroleum
Directorate. Gas reserves declined 4% to 62.93 tcf.
Denmark reported a decline in both oil and gas reserves
mainly because of production. The most recent estimates
from the Danish Energy Agency put that country’s proved
gas reserves at 454 bcf and crude and condensate reserves
at 439 million bbl.
According to the latest estimates from the UK Oil & Gas
Authority, that country’s crude oil reserves declined to 2.07
billion bbl from 2. 56 billion bbl. Natural gas reserves are 6. 2
tcf, down from 7. 3 tcf reported a year ago.
In North America, Canada’s gas reserves moved down
nearly 6%, but its oil reserves are now a bit higher. The country’s conventional crude and condensate reserves are now
estimated at 5. 14 billion bbl compared with last year’s 4. 32
billion bbl, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. The latest estimate of oil sands reserves
places them at 165.4 billion bbl—little changed from a year
Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported that
Mexico’s proved crude oil reserves have decreased
8.7% to 6. 63 billion bbl and gas reserves have fallen 18% to 9.88 tcf.
Most countries in Lain America, except Venezuela, registered declines in oil reserves. Their performance on gas reserves are mixed.
Compared with last year, crude oil reserves in
Brazil decreased 3% to 12. 63 billion bbl and gas
reserves declined 12.2% to 13. 32 tcf, according
to the National Petroleum Agency. Argentina’s crude oil reserves declined 1%, while its gas reserves increased 6.4%.
Currently, OPEC has a total of 14 member counties. Indonesia suspended its membership at yearend 2016, while Equatorial Guinea became a full member on May 25.
According to OPEC’s 2017 annual statistical bulletin, total crude oil reserves held by its current members stood at
1,217 billion bbl, up 7. 8 billion bbl from a year ago. Gas reserves reached 3,380 tcf compared with 3,347 tcf a year ago.
Venezuela’s crude oil reserves this year reached 302.25
billion bbl. Its gas reserves increased by 1. 34 tcf to 202.69
tcf. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil reserves dipped to 266.2 billion
bbl, while its gas reserves edged up to 304.38 tcf.
The share of the world’s oil reserves in OPEC is little
changed from a year ago, standing at 73.7%. OPEC controls
48.6% of total global gas reserves.
The latest estimates from the US Energy Information Administration show decreases for both crude oil and gas reserves between yearend 2014 and yearend 2015.
In 2015, US crude oil and lease condensate proved re-
serves decreased 4. 7 billion bbl, or 11.8%, to 35. 23 billion
bbl. Proved reserves of dry gas decreased 61 tcf to 307.7 tcf.
For both fuels, the net downward revisions to reserves ex-
ceeded both the total discoveries and the estimated produc-
tion for 2015.
EIA is scheduled this month to release the yearend 2016
estimates of proved reserves. As OGJ went to press last
week, these figures were not yet released, and OGJ made its
own estimates based on information indicated by OGJ150.
OGJ estimates that, as of yearend 2016, US crude oil and
lease condensate proved reserves totaled 35. 43 billion bbl,
up slightly from the prior year. Dry gas reserves increased
to 310 tcf.
Crude oil production in 2017
According to OGJ estimates, OPEC crude oil production this
year averages an estimated 32. 41 million b/d vs. 32.88 million
b/d last year. The year-to-date compliance with supply cuts
was 87%, according to the International Energy Agency. The
largest year-on-year declines were posted by Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, and the UAE. Outputs
from Libya and Nigeria, both exempt from supply cuts, are expected to increase 400,000 b/d and
50,000 b/d, respectively, compared with a year ago.
Russia’s estimated crude and condensate production this year averaged 11 million b/d, slightly up
from 10.92 million b/d in 2016. Russia’s year-to-date
compliance has averaged 80%. With the exception
of Gazprom, all companies have scaled back production.
Kazakhstan crude and condensate production for 2017 is
up over 100,000 b/d on a year ago. Azerbaijan 2017 oil production will be lower year-on-year, with compliance averaging 90% for the year-to date.
UK oil production will increase this year, thanks to BP’s
Schiehallion field and Enquest’s Kraken development.
Encouraged by price gains, OGJ forecasts US crude oil
production to rise 4.2% in 2017, averaging 9. 23 million b/d.
Hurricanes caused substantial shut-ins, capping US output.
For 2017 as a whole, Canadian oil production is expected
to expand 5.7% from a low base in 2016 when wildfires shut
in a significant proportion of Albertan oil output.
Brazilian crude oil production has been increasing robustly this year, with gains stemming mostly from Lula field.
Argentinian oil supplies in 2017 will decline about 33,000
b/d on average from the prior year. Mexico production is
down nearly 7% this year, due to a deep decline from mature
fields and the consecutive hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
Chinese crude oil output is expected to average 3. 8 million b/d, 3% lower than in 2016. Total oil supply from ‘Other
Asia’, also declined, following relatively steady production
overall in 2016. The largest declines are seen in Vietnam,
Indonesia, and Thailand.